A bit more about China and the Kitty Hawk deal, plus some more below the fold about another failure of Russia’s Bulava SLBM and some other aspects of the Russian defense industry.


Panda Bashing?

On the heels of the story of the Chinese turning away the Kitty Hawk comes that of the two minesweepers that were denied safe haven in Hong Kong to avoid heavy storms/seas. We’ve written about it here and that aspect (the denial of safe haven) has also received coverage on many of the other Navy-related blogs. Curiously enough, it has received scant attention in the general media (surprise) and only muted reaction from the Pentagon, outside of Navy. Knowing ADM Keating, one can safely bet the Irish dander is well exercised over this affair in private as is CNO and one presumes that their concerns have been clearly communicated to the Chinese. More troubling is the tepid response from the Administration and SECDEF. Have we come to the point where we are afraid to call out the Chinese for actions inconsistent with the norms and traditions of the sea and international relations? Would it be considered piling on to add this to the vocally expressed concerns over the safety of consumer products originating from China? Too much along the lines of panda bashing perhaps? Tough. China has clearly shown her intents over the course of the past year, from the irresponsible ASAT test to continued resistance to transparency in a wide variety of venues. Time to quit playing nice and publicly hold them accountable for their actions.



Russian President Calls for Further Rearmament
Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday demanded that the re-equipping of the Russian Army and Fleet continue. The Defense Ministry has stated that the sum allotted for defense and security in the 2008 budget is secret, but First Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov announced last month that the amount earmarked for weapons purchases has been raised by 20 percent. The state defense order for 2008 will therefore be 350-365 billion rubles. (Kommersant, 21 Nov 2007)
Question is – will the infrastructure be capable of meeting the demand signal because right now, there are plenty of indicators that it is nowhere near that capable:


  • New SSBN: Putin announced in October that the lead sub of a new/improved SSBN class, the Yury Dolgoruky would be launched in 2008 and that a fourth would be added as new construction. However, it appears that the problems with the development of the new Bulava SLBM (including yet another failed test earlier this month according to sources ) which in turn would push the launch date of the Yury Dolgoruky back to 2009 or 2010. The story of the Bulava is illustrative of the condition of the Russia’s defense industry post-Cold War. Intended as a new solid-fuel SLBM it was to draw from the design, development and production experience of the Topol-M, including sharing some common components. It is not a navalized Topol-M as reported in some quarters, primarily because of size disparities between the land-based Topol-M and the shorter/wider SLBM tubes on the next SSBN. Under the Soviets, competing design bureaus would have built alternate designs, and indeed, such was almost the caser here with the liquid-fueled Sineva follow-on to the successful SS-N-23 deployed in Delta IV SSBNs. Instead, the decision was made to leap to new technology and concentrate efforts on building the Bulava. The result has been desultory at best, a disaster at worst with five out of nine test launches a failure, and questions hanging over those deemed a success (e.g., the first two successes were just a test of the cold launch system, questions about a possible problem with the warheads on another, etc.). For now, the only option for the new SSBN is the Bulava which for all appearances looks to be a long ways from being ready for operation, despite being ordered into serial production.  

    Project 955 SSBN Launch of first Project 955 SSBN Project 955 SSBN in drydock  2005 Launch of Bulava

  • Six new CV’s: Written of here and elsewhere earlier this year, but recent developments with the refit of the Admiral Gorshkov for the Indian Navy belies a greater issue of capability with Russian shipyards. Recall that under the original agreement, Russia “gave” the Gorshkov to the Indian navy with the proviso that India would spend some $600M on refit/upgrade work. This led to a $1.6B Memorandum of Understanding signed in 1998 between Russia and India for the refit work plus purchase of two squadrons of MiG-29K fighters. A major piece of the refit would be the installation of a “ski-jump” to accommodate fixed wing aircraft launches. Delivery was to be in 2005. Now, $458M in sunk costs (no pun intended) later, India is being handed an updated bill for an additional $1.2B for a program that has habitually missed deadlines and cost projections as well as showing little in the way of substantive progress, delivery has apparently slipped to at least 2010, if not later, and the Indian Navy must consider whether to continue pursuit of this option.

    Gorshkov-'as is' ex-Gorshkov (to be)  MiG-29K

  • Air Force modernization: One SU-34 was delivered last year with 2-3 scheduled for next, down from the 6-10/year envisioned. Continuing problems with engine production have plagued this and the Tu-160 overhaul/update and production program. Appears to also be impacting the T-50 program which was slated for first flight in 2009 with IOC in 2015.

    SU-34  Sukhoi T-50 Tu-160

All of the above should be instructive for the US defense industry as well which underwent it’s own consolidation post Cold War and faces challenges in both developing and implementing new technology in a cost-efficient manner as well as facing a large bill for force structure replacement (i.e., Navy and it’s current woes w/shipbuilding and Air Force’s rapidly aging TACAIR fleet).


  1. stork


    Exactly right. Unfortunately, our leaders lack the balls to confront the CHICOMs over these issues. Our lack of response will only result in the CHICOMs becoming even more bold in confronting the US.


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