“After its firing from the submarine Dmitry Donskoy, the Bulava missile self-liquidated and exploded into the air” – Russian MoD spokesman to Interfax 23 Dec 08
And thus was written the postscript on the latest test of the star-crossed Bulava SLBM. Five failures in eight attempts would seem to call into question the fast-track to IOC/deployment of the missile – but given that there is no alternative to speak of (yes, there is the SS-N-23, but it won’t fit the launchers on the new SSBNs), it looks like the Russians are stuck with continuing to try and make the Bulava work. And maybe not so fast on the IOC…
The Bulava scenario is pregnant with questions for our own procurement process – e.g., putting all your eggs in one basket and hoping it all works as advertised since you’ve pinned the future of a platform/capability on the success of that development (*cough*JSF*cough*). So what happens if we find ourselves in a similar coffin corner with a major program? Cancel it and hope that in the interim we can stretch out the legacy platform until the (next) new one comes on line? Been there, done that. Remember the A-12? Look what that scenario did to the VA and VF communities and our long-range strike capability in particular and TACAIR in general (still feeling the aftereffects today). There’s a lot of discussion out there right now about the F-35, some legit, some politically motivated, but enough that hope alone isn’t COA if it falls short in trials (and here I’m particularly concerned about the F-35B and it’s purported weight and cooling problems). Twasn’t always so – look at the development of the Tomcat out of the ashes of the TFX, but that was a different time. Or was it? What are your thoughts?
Article Series - Future of Air War
- Of Wargames, JSFs and Baby Seals (Part I)
- Is the F-35 the Next DDG-1000? – UPDATED
- Of Wargames, JSFs and Baby Seals (II)
- Of Wargames, JSF and Baby Seals (III)
- F-35 Slated for Common Electronic Attack Platform?
- Bulava Fails Latest Test – Lessons for US?
- E-2D Advanced Hawkeye – Death By A Thousand Cuts?
- Boeing Unveils the F-15SE ‘Silent Eagle’
- More Hawkeye Pics
- Stand-up of the Navy Air and Missile Defense Command (NAMDC)
- A JSF Program Re-Structuring on the Horizon?
- E-2D Update: Progress Report and Hawkeye BMD?
- Fifth Generation Fighters – The Competition Casts Its Ballot (UPDATED)
- Some More Observations on the Sukhoi PAK-FA
- Красная звезда вторник: Red Star Tuesday — Overhauling Russia’s Air Force
- De-constructing Sukhoi’s PAK-FA
- Let’s Talk Integrated Air and Missile Defense
- Progress – However You Measure It
- Thought for the Day
- Close Air Support Aircraft Find Renewed Interest
- IAMD Acquisition Updates: E-2D Advanced Hawkeye and SM-3 Blk IIB
- Fighter Deal of the Century: Europe – 2, USA – 0
- Steeljaws Airborne Again?
- ♫♬ Oh When the Drone is Called Up Yonder… ♬♫
- There may be more life in the F-22 than some are inclined to attribute.
- F-35C has no guarantees, unlike -A and -B models which have overseas partners. I’m not as sold on future updates to the super bug serving as a replacement for the F-35C though,,,
- re. Bulava issues, I think it is more than quality control issues and wraps back to fundamental design shortcomings.
- more to come re. sunburn in the coming new year as we expand the discussion on assured access issues.
- SJS
SJS……….Looking at the Bulava missile test failures, I don’t see its just a QC issue…..There have been too many failures to date to blame QC as the main cause…..So if the Russians have “new” SSBN and no working missiles for her, who is to blame? Russia has been promising lots of new ships, aircraft et al…..who will build them? Ukraine is out of the picture……Russia, like China, is into self dillusion about a lot of military issues…..writing about the US coming apart at the seams is a might premature, we survived Jimmy Carter, so we’ll survive Barack Hussein Soweto Obama.
Bob:
I think there are several factors here — beginning with a false premise on the part of the Moscow Thermodynamics Institute that they could shoehorn a land-based missile design into an SLBM form factor with little in the way of design changes. Fold-in questionable QC in manufacture or material, pressure from higher up to perform and you have all the ingredients necessary for continued spectacular failures.
w/r, SJS