Shashou Jiang: CBERS-2B

The phrase “assassin’s mace” is the English translation of “shashou jiang,” a term of ancient Chinese strategy. “Shashou jiang” was a club with which the “assassin” incapacitated his enemy, suddenly and totally, instead of fighting him according to “the rules.”

Dateline: 19 September 2007 – The CBERS (China/Brazil Earth Resources Spacecraft) -2B is placed in orbit by a Long March 4B.  CBERS 2B carries three primary imaging cameras to take a wide range of pictures of locations scattered throughout the world. A low-resolution camera with a 60-degree field of view will specialize in capturing images of large swaths of the planet. Another camera will be capable of taking pictures with a resolution of about 65 feet. Unlike its forerunners, CBERS 2B includes a high-resolution black-and-white camera able to produce images showing objects as small as 2.5 meters, or about eight feet. CBERS 1 and CBERS 2 each carried an infrared scanning instrument instead.  3-day orbital coverage as follows:

What’s the "so-what" factor in this?  Afterall, it’s a earth resources satellite and a shared one at that, right?  Not so fast…

1.  Near Real-time Imagery: CBERS-2B  provides China with a near-real time(NRT) digital image transmission that is an order of magnitude improvement over it’s earlier film-capsule return imagery spacecraft.  With PLA control of and access to the 2.5m resolution imagery, some analysts note that CBERS-2B could provide China a rudimentary targeting capability against aircraft carriers operating in the Pacifc (AW&ST 24 Sep 07, p.37).  Of course that would be in line with their ongoing efforts to utilize tactical and theater ballistic missiles to target carrier groups, and could "serve as a key enabler for Chinese regional power projection" according to the latest Pentagon evaluation of Chinese military power.

2.  Technology Transfer and Improvement: Next to the NRT capability, the degree of technological sophistication required to construct and operate the CBERS-2B will have carryover implications for other Chinese indigenous weapons programs.  Sun Laiyan, head of both the China National Space Agency and Vice Minister of the Commission od Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense points to the importance of the launch of CBERS-2B as part of the effort to build national-level labs whose research will focus on major basic sciences, strategic high technologies and system integration technologies.  Very much interested in bringing in ideas from the civil sector, Sun notes that over 10,000 patents have been refgistered in the past three years alone at an annual rate of 46%. 

The importance of the above cannot be understated.  The previous CBERS have produced over 1 million images for 1200 users in China and 3,000 in Brazil alone – and that was with the lower 20m resolution.  That kind of demand signal has a way of inducing industry to quantum leaps in technology – and it would appear the Chinese are stepping up to the plate in that regard.  As the lines continue to blur between mililtary and civilian technology in space, especially in the realm of remote sensors, the days of big, dedicated reconaissance satellites dedicated to military and intelligence use, typified by the KH (Key Hole) series are beginning to wane.  The resolution, persistence and NRT access demanded by commercial users is on par with traditional intelligence and military requirements, while outstripping those users in terms of demand.  For reference, the US is also moving to this model with policy directives form the Bush Administration that commercial space imagery should be "the first choice" to meet governmental intel agency requirements for medium-resolution imagery and to use commercial space launchers as first resort.  Other nations are picking up on this as well — Israel has scheduled a launch of its next generation imagery satellite on an Indian SLV which should take place later this month.

Also of note, this launch was the 60th straight successful launch of the Long March series since several failures in the 1995-96 timeframe.  Notably, that improvement came on the heels of information and technology transfer supplied by US companies in the wake of the loss of their commercial sateliites in those launches.  While it has been rightly pointed out that space launch vehicles and military ICBMs tend to diverge in their development post-first generation (SLV towards greater payloads and liquid fuels, military towards reliability & survivability with solid fuel loads), there are still plenty of areas of  crossover in terms of guidance, launch C2, staging and materials.

Near-real time 2.5m resolution, adaption of Western models of cooperative venture and technology development and integration, continued improvement in missile reliabilty and technology – all in plain sight of the West but with little notice on its part.  What will we see two years, five years hence?  And how difficult will it be for the West, and the US in particular, to counter or deny access to that imagery during a crisis situation?  The old methodologies of buying up available space on commerical IMINT platforms (currently employed vs countries like Iran) just won’t fit here.