What 1.8% of GDP Buys These Days…

Very little in the way of defense forces…

1.8% of GDP allocated to defense is a hard sum to work with these days – harder still if you decide to freeze it in place and not adjust annually for inflation. In such a coffin corner, what is one left with? If you are France and deep in the process of defining your defense guidelines for the next several years it means:

• No second carrier;
• Far fewer multi-mission frigates than planned for;
• A reduction of about 50 Rafale fighters;
• Loss of some part of six Barracuda-class SSN’s;
• Reduction by 1/3 of the airborne arm of the Force d’Frappe (three squadrons of Rafale F.3’s reduced to two); 
• An as yet to be determined but significant reduction in Army manpower and garrisons

Yet there is enough money to establish a “Space Command” (under the Air Force) for controlling an increased number of "spy satellites" as part of an overall increase in intelligence collection.…even as NATO commitments in Afghanistan and elsewhere go wanting.  Curiously, one would think that the mere collection of inteligence should not in itself be the endgame, but that rather one would want to act upon what is collected.  Unless, of course, one can get others to do one’s bidding.   The rest of the story, as it were (from CHINFO newsclips):

France Expected To Abandon Plans For Second Aircraft Carrier
(PARIS LE POINT (FRANCE) 28 FEB 08) … Jean Guisnel

Work is progressing on the white paper, and the major guidelines are taking shape. The abandonment of the plan for a second aircraft carrier. A one-third reduction in the airborne nuclear component. The establishment of a space command and the launch of new spy satellites. The chairman of the committee on the defense and security white paper, Jean-Claude Mallet, delivered an "interim report" to [President] Nicolas Sarkozy 25 February, but no communique was released following the meeting. Nevertheless a timetable is taking shape. An initial version is due to be presented around 15 April to the National Assembly and Senate committees concerned, which will privately examine the draft white paper. Then the final document will be submitted to the president, probably in the first half of May. Next, a Defense Council what have to convene at the Elysee [president’s office] to endorse the president’s decisions, which will define the major guidelines for French defense policy for long years to come.

Having examined some dozen scenarios listing the threats that France could have to confront, the members of the commission are now examining what resources should be entrusted to the security forces. Personnel, equipment, deployment capabilities: everything is on the table.

During a seminar held in Paris 16 February, the commission also broached the crucial aspect of budgetary resources. Let us remember that France allocates 1.8 percent of its GDP to defense, that is, some 36 billion euros. At present three hypotheses are being examined. The first is the "0 percent by volume" option. The budget would remain the same, year on year, increased only by inflation. This is the median position. The second possibility is "0 percent by value." This option, advocated by Bercy [Finance Ministry], would freeze the budget at its present level, without any increase to take account of inflation. Consequently, after five years the proportion of GDP that France allocates to its defense would be only 1.3 percent. This solution would require major reductions in France’s military resources. If this happens, the number of Rafales [fighter planes] envisaged would fall from 294 to 240. The Navy would have only one or two multi-mission frigates, in addition to the eight currently on order. It would have to relinquish some of its series of six Barracuda nuclear attack submarines. And above all it would have no second aircraft carrier. In order to avert such eventualities, the Armed Forces propose adopting a third, costlier, option. The budget would be increased every year at the rate of inflation plus 0.8 percent in order to pay for equipment currently planned, but not yet financed… It will be up to the president to choose.

Consensus — On the basis of several conversations with persons close to the dossier, Le Point has concluded that some kind of consensus has emerged within the committee on several points. The "intelligence" mission will be significantly strengthened, partly by putting new spy satellites into orbit and by establishing a space command, entrusted to the Air Force. As regards land forces, the human resources and equipment allocated to external operations will be reduced, on a scale that is the subject of tough negotiations. The Army, which will accept a reduction in manpower, is also being asked to reduce its number of garrisons; it is now worried that local elected representatives are protesting, and securing promises from the government to maintain bases, which it considers unnecessary.

As regards equipment, the second aircraft carrier is doomed. A recent parliamentary report cites a price of 3.5 billion euros, well over-budget. Some members of the committee are reckoning on 4 billion euros. This is inconceivable, in a context of budgetary constraint. Though a general agreement has been reached for the committee not to propose abandoning the airborne component of our nuclear deterrent, a consensus has emerged on the need to reduce the number of Rafale F3s allocated to it, in time. The three squadrons of 20 aircraft initially envisaged will be reduced to two. And their nuclear mission will not be exclusive. Nicolas Sarkozy is planning his military revolution.