More on the Bear Coming out of Hibernation…
The Kommersant notes:
"Several experts note that such moves ricochet the U.S. administration which has concentrated too heavily on al-Qaida and Iran and overlooked “the Russian threat.” This is an opinion of an unnamed former White House staffer, who served Ronald Reagan and George Bush Snr. “My great fear is that I wake up one day soon to discover that we lost the Cold War, or rather that like everything else, we won the war and then lost the peace,” he said in an interview with The Sunday Telegraph." (emphasis added)
You know, “maskirovka” has so many nuances, shades and uses. whenever you see something, anything coming from east of the “curtain” you really have to peel all the layers to find the reason. lots of times, lots of reasons, a simple act can accomplish many things. Wouldn’t take anything at face value.
Putin likes the power and control. A good number of the population like him too. not all, but quite a few. They need to sell stuff to make money. a lot of money. so they play, play with the indians, with the chinese and anyone else who has either the cash, or something they can barter, be it oil, influence or in some instances, like the devil or “capo di tuti capi”, something to be collected at a later time. Russian actions don’t have to make sense to us. you have to look at how they make sense to them.
The carrier thing is a nice exercise. could it be that they’d like to take a couple of chinese pilots for a ride so they can play with the Varyag? maybe, did they finally pay off the utilities at Sochi and start using the training area, maybe? maybe not? but in a world with so few players in the carrier arena, they want to play too. They’ve put a lot of money in their navy in the last several years, so the naval aviation guys got a little bit of it too. I personally wouldn’t worry about their plan for 6 carriers in the next 20 years. BUT, still keep an eye on them, a very keen eye.
PS. Gospadin Pisar, gde/kak vui izuchali ruskii yaziku. I kogda vii rabotaete vpentagone? I rabotali tam c 04/01 do 11/03? Ot IP, ia prepodavat “brief” kajdii dien, do DNI, 3/5 i cno i otro. dumaiu shto vii tam do tak vremia. mojeit biit. paca
I don’t know, I think most of this is for show more than anything else. Their air force can’t afford to buy new stuff, so they are spending their money on training.
Their navy is in an opposite position, they are building like crazy to keep the industry going but are barely sailing enough to be credible as a working navy.
I’m also starting to wonder if all this action is really intended to impress us, or to let a growing China know that Russia isn’t a paper tiger.
I guess my approach has been along the lines that what we are seeing is partly domestic politics, partly nationalistic ego and partly business practical sense. If you are looking to grow your economy on something other than oil/gas revenue(big reserves but challenges accessing and delivering same) by say, heavy manufacturing, you go to what you traditionally have done best – marketing arms to 2nd tier and lower states that need to modernize their forces. Of course, if your military has been discredited and out of sight for the last 15 years (save for adventures in Chechnya) then you need to boost its image (and by extension its equipment) by making bold pronouncements, tweaking the big kid on the block’s nose (because, you know, everyone else already does), and begin several high-vis activities (like resuming long-range bomber flights).
This isn’t meant to be dismissive of
SovietRussian rhetoric – we need to honor the threat and address the challenges and changes presented across a broad front by Russian forces. Sort of like planning an ingress and having to honor the threat presented by an older SA-2 site vs. SA-10…you “honor” (acknowledge) the threat, but don’t necessarily expend a HARM or some other expensive countermeasure when maneuver or a cheap decoy will work.To not do so encourages greater mischief which will incur problems of a greater order of magnitude than need be. As it is, the prospect of say, an Iran armed with Su-33’s and Steregushchiy
LCS’frigates patrolling the Straits of Hormuz courtesy Russian arms sales abroad should give one pause to ponder. What we are seeing now is just the leading edge of the next long war (taken in with the challenges posed by a growing China and restive India, among others). Big Navy better get ready and quit d*cking around with vaporware ships, subs and aircraft because quantity is going to be as important as quality in the next war.-SJS
P.S. Claudio: К Ñожалению мой руÑÑкий Ñзык ÑоÑет – полноÑтью (как доказано здеÑÑŒ 😳 )!. Я изучил руÑÑкий Ñзык, поÑкольку новичок, назад в Ñередине 70-Ñ‹Ñ… и теперь, Ñ Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÑŒÑˆÐ¸Ð¼ количеÑтвом времени и помощи от гида перевода, может озадачить мой путь через. Переводчики онлайн – Ð±Ð¾Ð»ÑŒÑˆÐ°Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾Ñ‰ÑŒ также. 😉
Я был в Пентагоне в N3/5 как N51B и JACO от 03/2001 до 06/2004. w/r, SJS
SJS,
Moi Ruskii takje ochen ploho, patamushto ia ne praktirovat kajdii dien. Vas problem celi v nekotory moih zapicok. Bilo vecelo govorit paruskii c admiralom Vaxendorf. konechna? Mne nravitza “brief” emu, i kiting, i temno golyboi. K Grin ne stolko udovolstvuia. ochen ploxo.
I’m not convinced it’s all chest-thumping or legacy building. I suspect the Russians fully expect to be able to pay for their toys by selling them to anyone who’s buying. And there’s every indication that military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing will continue to grow. Tie this up with the Chinese buildup and the world looks more and more like “back to the future” every day.
I’m with SJS. There are several reasons why the Russians are doing this ranging from cash to full employment in the factories to the desire for a “world class” Navy that surfaces in Russia every 20 years or so. Let’s not forget that arms transfers have been a part of their foreign policy from back in the Soviet days (who can forget the SVERDLOV CL they gave to the Indonesians). The only difference now is that they want cash instead of basing rights. However, to have a large navy doesn’t mean that you know how to operate it effectively. Moreover, if they plan to sell their stuff they’d better improve the quality of their product over what I saw in the mid to late 90s.
Being the kind of “cup is half full kind of guy I am”, I welcome this development. Bring back the 600 ship Navy!
The Cold War will come back just in time for me to miss it…………………..Sigh. 😥
I had a very surreal dream about 2 years ago, a few months after I got saved. A bear caught me off guard as it came out of the woods after me. It was leading the charge of other wild animals such as a leopard and a lion. I saw my cousin jump into a long line of what appeared to be school lockers which almost formed a wall. I ran and jumped in one and closed the door. I felt safe for a few seconds but I felt something on my feet. I looked down and the Bear was licking my feet. I only had half a locker door and he began to turn his head sideways to bite my ankles and pull me out when I opened the door and jumped on his back. A few days later at church, my preacher preached that the Bear was waking up and coming out of the wilderness and he was speaking of Russia. A few months later, someone put a life size stature of that same Bear out by the Highway and I always look at it as a reminder. I also had a vision if you are interested.
God Bless
Rick Seal, Servant of Christ