India Presses Homegrown Missile Defense
So your one neighbor, Pakistan, possesses nuclear weapons and is working assiduously on short- and medium-range missiles, no doubt with nuclear delivery in mind as part of a deterrent package against your own nuclear forces. China, with whom you share a fairly long (and disputed) border has also been engaged in building a modern force of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. According to the latest DoD report on China’s military power, those numbers are now in the neighborhood of 675-710 CSS-7 (300 km range), 315-355 CSS-6 (range 600 km) and 60-80 CSS-5 (range 1750+ km). Most of these are presumably pointed across the straits at Taiwan, but since they are mobile, may be re-deployed after a fashion. Against such a growing threat, prudence would seem to dictate building an indigenous ABM capability, which, if open press reports are to be believed, it appears India is well along the road to doing:
Following successful interceptor missile tests in 2006 and 2007, India claims to have developed an anti-ballistic missile (ABM) capacity, with operational deployment scheduled by 2011.
During the November 2006 Prithvi Air Defense Exercise (PADE), a high altitude test was conducted involving the successful interception of a Prithvi ballistic missile by a second modified Prithvi interceptor missile, dubbed the AXO (Atmospheric Intercept System). The agency has also successfully tested the Advanced Air Defense (AAD) missile, intended for lower altitude interceptions.
According to sources, a further test is scheduled for this April when two interceptors will target a single incoming missile. Development is also reportedly underway on the high-speed AD-1 and AD-2 ABM systems. – INS Security Watch: India Missile Defense Dreams (27 March 2008)
Of course, there are those that continue to see any form of defense as inherently unstable:
Defense analysts fear a credible Indian anti-missile capability could promote instability in the South Asia region, triggering responsive arms-procurements and weapons systems development. Moreover, there are fears that US involvement might complicate India’s relations with China, Russia and Pakistan. – Ibid.
Indeed, one begins to hear many of the same arguments placed in the regional context that have been made in the global one for and against many elements of the debate over nuclear deterrence and what shape or form it takes as well as the role, if any, defense should have. This mirrored debate is an interesting one to watch for it reflects a growing issue where countries like India, and China, wish to become regionally dominant in like manners as the US has become globally dominant. That in turn will have an impact in the ongoing discussion and debate over such things as the Maritime Strategy as it will influence force structure, operations, regional security agreements and engagements and initiatives like the ongoing Africa Station.
It will also have a bearing when those regional powers come in conflict with one another…but we are getting ahead of ourselves. Something else to think about in the run-up to next week’s renewed discussions over the Maritime Strategy as well as the next nuclear and national strategies. Make sure you join us then!